You might be having flashbacks to a simpler time, when your adolescent outbrursts were met with a stern talking to, but in 2021, that phrase means a lot more. With less and less pilots everyday, we might all be grounded!
A direct consequence of any and all global crises is the decrease of pilots for commercial airlines. According to the US Federal Aviation Administration, for several years after 9/11 and also after the economic crisis of 2008, pilot certifications dropped by up to 50%. It’s no secret that the same thing is happening now.
To understand why, we have to take a step back. Sure, the Covid-19 pandemic brought the issue to light again, but this specific problem has been bubbling up under the surface for a long time. The shortage of pilots that we will be witnessing in the upcoming years, has been unwittingly set in motion more than 4 decades ago.
In the 1980s, the airline industry was expanding rapidly. A new generation of commercial pilots was born, to keep up with the evergrowing demand; mostly, they were plucked from the airforce ranks. Fastforward to 2020 – this great generation of pilots has since become an aging workforce; one that, having “filled up all the spots”, left little space for turnover. To make matters worse, these same pilots are now being sent into early retirement to cope with the financial side of this crisis. What about younger pilots? While there are younger pilots, many of them were not able to wait months on end to be called up; they had to find another line of work.
What does this mean for the future of commercial airlines? All estimates lead us to believe that by 2025 travel demand will be back up to what it was in 2019, if not higher. With the upcoming vaccinations, the European Digital Green Certificate, and reduced restrictions, people will flock to the airports. By then, though, we could be short 50 thousand pilots.
Airlines need to look to the future, and act now. They have to find a way to employ, support, and train young pilots to meet the upcoming demand, otherwise we will all be grounded!